How it works
At age zero, the base equals the original base MSRP. After that, this illustrative curve assumes an 18% first-year loss and 12% annual losses. Expected mileage is 12,000 miles per year; each mile above or below that benchmark adjusts the modeled value by 0.0002%, capped at 20% in either direction.
Condition multipliers are 1.05 for excellent, 1.00 for good, 0.85 for fair, and 0.65 for poor. Trim multipliers are 1.00 for base, 1.05 for mid, and 1.10 for premium. These are invented modeling assumptions disclosed as such, not observed premiums. Use the base model’s original MSRP if selecting a higher trim to avoid counting its premium twice.
The formula behind the estimate
Every result starts with a defined model and visible assumptions.
Base = original base MSRP × 0.82 × 0.88^(age−1), for age ≥ 1 Mileage adjustment = clamp(−0.000002 × (miles − 12,000 × age), −0.20, +0.20) Private midpoint = base × (1 + mileage adjustment) × condition × trim Trade midpoint = private midpoint × 0.85; retail midpoint = private midpoint × 1.15 Each scenario range = midpoint × [0.85, 1.15]
A worked example
A $30,000 original base price, five-year age, 60,000 miles, good condition, and base trim gives an illustrative private-sale midpoint of about $14,752. Its trade midpoint is about $12,540 and retail midpoint about $16,965. The ±15% bands are scenario ranges, not confidence intervals or guaranteed achievable prices.
What this estimate can and cannot tell you
The calculator can show how age, usage, and broad condition assumptions affect a transparent baseline. It cannot identify a vehicle, inspect it, confirm a title, or observe a buyer’s willingness to pay. It has no VIN decoding, licensed valuation feed, dealer inventory, or live transaction data. Vehicles with the same MSRP may have very different resale behavior.
Dealer retail, private sale, and trade-in are different transactions. A dealer may incur reconditioning, selling, inventory, and business costs. A private buyer may value records and condition differently. The fixed channel adjustments here only illustrate that distinction; they should not be used to claim that a specific dealer margin is unfair.
Turn a broad range into evidence
Write down your vehicle’s exact specification and supported mileage. Gather service invoices, title information, and photos of known issues. Compare consistent asking-price evidence and request several written offers with the same disclosures. If those offers cluster far from the model, the offers are more relevant than the generic curve.
For a sale decision, distinguish gross price from net proceeds. Subtract your loan payoff, preparation costs, inspection costs, and any selling fees. A higher private-sale price can require more time and uncertain effort. Compare that net amount with a real trade offer rather than comparing one channel’s midpoint to another channel’s best-case range.
Questions worth asking
Does this use live market data?
No. It uses only the disclosed age, mileage, condition, and trim model. Results are educational estimates rather than appraisals.
Why can’t I enter a make or VIN?
There is no vehicle-specific database connected. Asking for a VIN would imply precision the model does not have and would collect information it does not need.
What do the ranges mean?
Each is 15% below and above its modeled midpoint. The interval is an illustrative uncertainty band, not a statistically validated prediction interval.
Can I use kilometers?
Yes. The calculator converts kilometers to miles using 1 mile = 1.609344 kilometers before applying the mileage assumption.
How should I choose condition?
Use a cautious overall assessment. Significant damage, unusual modifications, or title brands require actual inspections and market evidence; a dropdown is not sufficient.
This is general information, not personalized financial advice. Read the limitations.
