How it works
At age zero the base equals the original base MSRP. After that, this illustrative curve assumes an 18% loss in the first year and 12% a year later on. It treats 12,000 miles a year as expected, and each mile above or below that benchmark adjusts the modeled value by 0.0002%, capped at 20% in either direction.
Condition multipliers are 1.05 for excellent, 1.00 for good, 0.85 for fair and 0.65 for poor. Trim multipliers are 1.00 for base, 1.05 for mid and 1.10 for premium. These are UNVERIFIED modeling assumptions, not observed premiums. If you pick a higher trim, start from the base model's original MSRP so you don't count the trim premium twice.
The formula behind the estimate
Every result starts with a defined model and visible assumptions.
Base = original base MSRP × 0.82 × 0.88^(age−1), for age ≥ 1 Mileage adjustment = clamp(−0.000002 × (miles − 12,000 × age), −0.20, +0.20) Private midpoint = base × (1 + mileage adjustment) × condition × trim Trade midpoint = private midpoint × 0.85; retail midpoint = private midpoint × 1.15 Each scenario range = midpoint × [0.85, 1.15]
A worked example
A $30,000 original base price, five years old, 60,000 miles, good condition and base trim gives an illustrative private-sale midpoint of about $14,752. The trade midpoint is about $12,540 and the retail midpoint about $16,965. The ±15% bands are scenario ranges, not confidence intervals or prices anyone has promised to pay.
What can this estimate tell me, and what can't it?
The calculator shows how age, usage and a broad idea of condition affect a transparent baseline. It can't identify a specific car, inspect it, confirm a title or see what a buyer would really pay. There's no VIN decoding, licensed valuation feed, dealer inventory or live sales data behind it, and cars with the same MSRP can resell very differently.
Dealer retail, private sale and trade-in are three different transactions. A dealer pays for reconditioning, selling, inventory and overhead. A private buyer may weigh records and condition differently. The fixed channel adjustments here only illustrate that gap; they aren't a claim that any dealer's margin is unfair.
How do I turn a broad range into real evidence?
Write down your car's exact specification and its true mileage. Collect service invoices, title information and photos of any known issues. Compare asking prices for similar cars, and ask for several written offers using the same disclosures. If those offers land far from the model, the offers matter more than the generic curve.
If you're deciding whether to sell, separate the price from what you'll actually keep. Subtract your loan payoff, preparation costs, inspection costs and any selling fees. A higher private-sale price can cost you time and effort. Compare that net amount with a real trade offer, not one channel's midpoint with another channel's best case.
Questions worth asking
Does this use live market data?
No. It uses only the age, mileage, condition and trim model described above, so the results are educational estimates and not appraisals.
Why can't I enter a make or VIN?
Because no vehicle-specific database is connected. Asking for a VIN would suggest precision the model doesn't have, and it would collect information it doesn't need.
What do the value ranges mean?
Each range runs 15% below and above its modeled midpoint. It's an illustrative uncertainty band, not a statistically validated prediction interval.
Can I enter mileage in kilometers?
Yes. The calculator converts kilometers to miles using 1 mile = 1.609344 kilometers before it applies the mileage assumption.
How should I choose the condition setting?
Be cautious and honest. Real damage, unusual modifications or title brands call for an inspection and market evidence, because a dropdown can't capture them.
This is general information, not personalized financial advice. Read the limitations.
